Blog Archives

The Fed’s Method

For years, we have observed that the vaunted Fed has, at serious inflection points, done nothing more than followed the market. The evidence we’ve collected shows our hunch is on the mark, and that the market generally ‘knows’ ahead of … Continue reading

Whither Interest Rates?

While pundits have claimed that there is just no more money to be made in bonds because rates are as low as they’ll go, rates keep dropping ever lower. Take the thirty year Treasury issue. In 2008, at the height … Continue reading

Doing the Twist

The Fed finally hiked rates the other day, after several stomach churning months of speculation. The deliberation was in itself causing volatility and disruption in the markets. So, from that perspective, it’s good to have it behind us. On the … Continue reading

Will They Ever

raise rates?? The Fed just announced that it will keep the fed funds rate at 0%. Reasons amount to low inflation, people not working who could which makes the employment picture worse than it seems if one looks at just … Continue reading

Yellen Speaks, Market Listens

Today, March 19, Janet Yellen said she would raise interest rates sometime in 2015. The market heard, and interest rates rose. Rates were described in the media as “leaping”, “surging”, “rising sharply”. This day is a dream come true for … Continue reading