Market Musings Blog

Toil and Trouble

Posted on 04.09.25 by Michelle Rand in Government Shennanigans, Interest Rates, Investment

If any of our clients can tell me who said this, when, and under what circumstances, I’ll buy you a nice dinner:

“We are destroying the small businessman. We are destroying Middle America. We are destroying the American dream.”

Sound familiar? Sound contemporary perhaps? It’s not. And once someone emails me with the answer to my question, we will announce the winner and complete this post with our observations about policies vs market returns. I’ll wait until this Friday to hear back; so have at it!

I’m supposing either no one read this post, or no one could find the quote, because as of Sunday, I had no answers from anyone. So, here goes:

The quote is from Congressman George Hansen, and it was related to Fed Chairman Volcker’s dramatic move to allow the fed funds rate to reach 20% – up from 7%. All along the way, in the attempt to control inflation, Volcker collected protests, criticism, even the threat of impeachment. A short history of this time can be found here. You will recognize the echoes of today in this account of a man standing largely alone, attempting to do the right thing for the economy.

Will Social Security Benefits be Reduced?

Posted on 03.27.25 by Michelle Rand in Government Shennanigans, Personal Finance

We’ve received a number of questions lately about whether Social Security benefits will be reduced. Most of these questions are apparently prompted by the popular media, which amounts to reading the wrong news on this subject. Reductions in Social Security staff do not equate to reductions in benefits. In fact, the opposite may be true: reductions in expenses of the program can give the program a bit of longevity.

Meanwhile, the Social Security program has been in trouble since 2010, when program distributions first began to exceed funds taken in (not including interest). The situation has only become more dire. Every year the Social Security Administration Board of Trustees publishes a report on the financial condition of the system, and for the last several years, the time to benefit reductions has shortened. A few years ago the Fund was set to last until 2040; the latest report, with critical language highlighted, can be accessed here. That report, published in mid 2024 during the Biden Administration, showed that benefits are on track to be reduced starting in 2033. These are actuarial figures reflecting the reality of increase longevity and fewer workers supporting today’s retirees.

Worse yet, at the end of 2024, and not yet mathematically incorporated into these forecasts, the Biden Administration passed changes in the rules that will pay out more benefits to certain government employees. That will further hamper the health of the Fund. We’re estimating that payments will need to be reduced sometime in 2032.

The reduction in benefits is expected to be about 20%, and it’s baked into the cake unless future administrations take action to lengthen the time to retirement age, raise taxes or the SS tax threshold, means test benefits, privatize some portion of the Fund, or take other action. Whether or not to account for these reductions in your planning is a risk assessment you can make with your financial advisor.

Aside from covering the situation with Social Security, the other point we want to make is that everything you want to know about SS is available on its website here. Attempting to filter news about Social Security through the media is the route to misinformation.

Announcing Julie’s Retirement and Introducing Our New Staff Member

Posted on 03.05.25 by Penguin in Investment

In one more milestone for Cascade Investment Advisors, we are bidding adieu to the first employee to retire from our company. Julie Longenecker will be retiring on March 31 after being with us from the near-beginning. Julie has been more than dedicated, helping us navigate many changes in the landscape, always with grace. And who doesn’t know how efficient she is! We wish Julie a well-deserved retirement filled with joy and relaxation. Thank you for being part of her journey with us.

As they say, when one door closes, another opens. On the heels of Julie’s announcement, we are pleased to introduce our newest addition to Cascade, Jennifer Adelblue. She will be taking over from Julie as Director of Client Operations. Jennifer has been with us since December 30th, and comes from a thirty-year career working with bond brokers whose names have shown up on confirms for your accounts for years. We’re lucky to have her on board and encourage you to welcome her when you have an opportunity.

Jennifer Adelblue, Director of Client Operations

How long have I been in the industry?
I have been in the financial industry since 1994. I started my career in a small bond brokerage firm and like a lot of small firms, it morphed over the years to a large corporation.
Starting with Cascade Investments reminds me of my roots in the industry.

What do I like about this industry?
This industry is always changing.

What do I like about working in a boutique firm?
I like helping people reach their goals.  Whether it is personal or professional, I appreciate the effort it takes to make our dreams and goals a success and those can be accomplished with a little help and support from one another.  To achieve this, it usually involves paperwork.  That’s where I come in 😊

Favorite way to spend time?
I have somewhat seasonal hobbies.
When it is nice outside, I like to take walks, garden and go camping. I also belong to a train club where we maintain and ride 1/8th scale – 7.5 gauge trains.
When it is raining and wintery, I like to quilt and do other handicraft projects.

Contact Information

  • t 503-417-1950
  • Jennifer.Adelblue@cascadeinvestors.com

The Inflation Reduction Act and Medicare Advantage

Posted on 10.28.24 by Michelle Rand in Personal Finance

Most of us are not particularly familiar with the Biden Administration’s Inflation Reduction Act, but its provisions have come home to roost for more than a million people just recently. While most media outlets are covering the IRA’s impact on insulin and other drug prices in a positive way, another effect of the Act was a tiny reduction in reimbursement rates for certain Medicare Advantage plan providers.

Plan providers live and die based on government reimbursement rates, and any time there’s a reduction, the ripple effects show up for people who use the plans. In this case, certain providers have chosen to exit markets entirely, leaving whole counties without any Medicare Advantage plans whatsoever. Lest you think this means the providers are just being greedy, be aware that, like bank regulators who insist that banks make a profit to remain healthy, so do government health regulators insist that providers make profits so they can stay in business. Unfortunately, these goals of lower reimbursement rates and maintenance of profits are not compatible.

Most of the affected counties are in some of the poorest areas of the country, so while this may not affect you this time around, it pays to keep a close eye on the health of your plan provider. Let us know if you have any questions.

How to View Portfolio Transactions & Yearly Reports

Posted on 09.27.24 by Penguin in Investment

Below is the step-by-step process to learn how to upload & download documents to & from ModestSpark:

Once signed in to ModestSpark, you will be directed to your main Portfolio Summary, which may look similar to this: Statements button on dropdown menu
On the top-right-hand corner of the Statements page, find the “Past Statement” dropdown menu, which includes your account’s yearly reports. Past Statements Dropdown Menu
By selecting the 1-3-5 Year Report option, you’ll be able to view a breakdown summary of your portfolio as well as your account’s performance over time. Performance over time chart