Blog Archives

How Bad Can it Get?

The stock market has declined over 10% due to fears over the economic impacts of Covid 19, aka the new coronavirus. While that number isn’t such a severe reaction – we were down 20% just as recently as the fourth … Continue reading

What Usually Happens to the Markets During an Epidemic?

So one thing to remember is that we don’t have that many historical opportunities to study, as we try to answer this question. Incidents include SARS, Ebola, Zika, and bird flu. Each of these produced a temporary decline in stocks … Continue reading

Bonds and the Stock Market:

How Do They Talk to Each Other?

It’s no secret that the stock market is unhappy about something – and that there are many things to be unhappy about. However, one item is dominant in our minds, though much less intuitive than trade problems, earnings issues, and … Continue reading

The Fed’s Method

For years, we have observed that the vaunted Fed has, at serious inflection points, done nothing more than followed the market. The evidence we’ve collected shows our hunch is on the mark, and that the market generally ‘knows’ ahead of … Continue reading

Whither Interest Rates?

While pundits have claimed that there is just no more money to be made in bonds because rates are as low as they’ll go, rates keep dropping ever lower. Take the thirty year Treasury issue. In 2008, at the height … Continue reading