Is a Crash Coming?

In a word, no. But stocks could rock and roll for a while. Geopolitical considerations have finally seeped into investors’ collective conscience, perhaps by dint of sheer number and degree of horror. Earnings have been pretty good, but the economy retains its ‘fits and starts’ feel. Confidence is sliding for the time being.

In times of high uncertainty, investors push asset prices down until they feel better about values. Stocks may be headed there for the time being. We don’t expect this to amount to more than the every-calendar-year 5% to 10% correction that’s normal throughout history, but it might be a good time to pare back any positions you think are overvalued.